looks like a short term bottom with the possibility of a bounce

the markets came into today completely oversold and continued selling just after the open. I think the Easy money to the downside has been made now. Looks like we could have a bounce or at the very least a short covering rally. either way this looks to be a choppy end of the summer.

All shorts are covered now and I’m looking at Long positions, it looks as if theres alot of fear out there it might be time to get greedy.

this chart is from yesterday, today it should be significantly lower.

The S&P500 has come off by over 100 points in a mere matter of days. I don’t know if we’ll make it back to the previous high but i think we might get back to the 1310-1320 area. After that i would be putting tight stops in and perhaps look to get short again.




once the SPY rallies back up to the 131 area it should come down once again putting that big 200 day MA crossed over the 50, look out below after that.

I’m looking at some of the industrial names to play for a bounce in addition to the indexs.

Some particular names are Ford (F) Eaton (ETN) Suncor (SU)



I will be looking for Ford to bounce to around $14



ETN should bounce to about $49




SU could make it back to about the $40 area.


This market does seem as if has turned decidedly to the downside, so i will be nimble in these plays and only take small positions as i do not want to get caught if the markets pulls a repeat of 2008. Looking at stops 3.5% under the entry positions of today, after that we’ll place at breakeven
good luck to all out there

after a 60 pt rally in 4 days it might be time to take some off

the market has rallied nearly 60 pts on the ES in 4 days; from June 27th to today. any longs out there should reduce positions and if you're looking to get short, this may be a good opportunity. most of the 60 pts was done on anemic volume, from there momentum traders, buy programs and end of the month/quarter window dressings continued to bid this thing up.
today is officially the last day of POMO operations, the market will be all on its own.
looking at the 1he bar chart ES should chop down to test the 1290 area.


on the daily we're looking at the SPY tagging a 51day SMA, the Bear is still on and selling the rallies is still the better play


short from 1316.5 today. we'll see how it plays out

Is this a Dip in a Bull Market or something else?

Even the Strongest bull markets has its pullback on profit taking, but lets examine where we're at right now and see if the Bull is still alive or if the Bear is back.
Fundamental
first let’s see if the Fundamentals are still in place for market participants to be buying; we have slowing growth in the U.S., debt problems in the European Union, an Asia which is seemingly all effected by the Japanese tsunami, housing markets in the U.S. Still in the Doldrums, fiscal problems in the U.S., Unemployment which hasn't come down in months and top it all off the Liquidity that the Fed was infecting into the markets end in July. So to sum it up I don’t believe the Fundamentals are in place.

Its Clearly Visible when presented the chart of job losses compared to previous recessions post WWII that this time is "Different"


housing prices have double dipped


The Employment to Population Ratio is not looking encouraging it is just above the level of the 1960's, a time when only a fraction of women were working compared to now.



Technical

Now when we Examine the Technical's of the market; All the Major indices of the World are below their 50day moving avg's, we have a Left translated Edge which looks to be producing lower highs and lower lows.





The market at the moment seems to be slightly oversold still but the depends on if the bull is going to continue or if its topped out already.






The S&P500 has tagged the 200 day moving avg twice now, I believe a break is inevitable. But not just yet it should come back to test the 50day before the hard sell of takes place.


The weekly is showing the crawl along the 200 day moving avg and declining volume.



In conclusion the market is is looking bearish but we’re looking for a technical bounce on any good news, or “less than bad news” the S&P500 could rally up to about 1350 and the NASDAQ could break out to new yearly highs. If this does happen it will be a great time for bulls to exit their positions and bears to start putting large swing positions on. There will be plenty of tradable opportunities on both bearish and bullish positions in the next year. The main trend will however be to the downside.

Great Bounce off of Chinese data

well that consolidation day yesterday turned out to be a superb day to buy in for a bounce, i managed to get long just after the Chinese data was release at 10pm on Monday in anticipation of a strong rally today. energy and mining is outperforming with financials lagging.

if the ES breaks above 1288.5 look for 1305. still looking to get short between 1320 and 1330 if we get there

Jim Rogers on CNBC

The guy has a great view on the world and makes very rational investments...

Seems oversold enough

looks about right to cover shorts here at 1278 and time to buy for a quick bounce, this might last a mere week or two but the market sell off from the last 6 sessions has given us valuations which are cheap enough to be bought.
look for energy, mining and banking equities to do well

buy em for a bounce

be prepared to sell the rally after it comes to the 1320 to 1330 area




chart by bespoke from a couple days ago, i dont have the updated version


saw this posted by AdamG from SMB, its a great visual of the market after being down 5 days in a row

The Bizarro World Markets

We all know the game is rigged by now and that the Fed has full control on the direction of the markets. To see this in action its remarkable how little power we have in fighting the fed, when they want to move the markets higher even on poor economic data they do just that. Its a tough market out there for any bears remaining, after a small short in the morning i realized it was going to be a POMO driven day.

all in one day yesterday we had the S&P 500 rallying on the back of terrible Durable Goods Orders m/m, the euro surging after it was announced Portugal is going to need a bailout and Silver margins being raised at the CME juuust after Gold hits a new all time high.

as long as QEII is in effect and the printing presses are turned on its a BTFD kind of market. If the program ends in June as Bernake has stated it will, maybe just then this will return to a normal functioning market. If however QEII is extended or a QEIII is born we just keep buying gold and silver, the long range targets will come much quicker with a few more Trillion dollars sloshing around out there.


POMO to the rescue, without this buying at key support areas it could have been a rough day.



I wonder if someone on the European continent got a sneak peak of how the day was gonna finish:



the last time a EURO memeber country needed a bailout it sent the EURO tumbling and markets crashing.... not this time though, they've got it all under control.



lastly a little margin hike to scare them away from buying anything of actual worth